The WNBA playoff picture has begun to crystallize. Seven of eight spots have been clinched following Tuesday’s games — the Phoenix Mercury and Indiana Fever clinched within minutes of each other with the Chicago Sky and Atlanta Dream both losing — and certain seeding tiers are starting to emerge.
But there’s plenty of intrigue as teams make their final push of the regular season — whether they’re fighting for better positioning or simply a postseason berth.
All the focus so far has been on which teams are up (the Minnesota Lynx and Indiana Fever) and which are down (the Seattle Storm and Chicago Sky) since the season resumed after the Olympic break. But with 16 days left in the regular season, anyone could impact the impending playoff race — one with a litany of contenders.
As the postseason approaches, ESPN’s Michael Voepel and Alexa Philippou ask — and try to answer — the five biggest questions around the WNBA.
Who will get the eighth playoff spot?
While Phoenix and Indiana made things official on Tuesday, the race for the eighth seed is still open. Chicago looked like it would claim the spot in the first half of the season but has the worst active losing streak in the league (seven games), dropping all but one of its contests post-Olympics. Atlanta started strong in August with three consecutive wins but then lost five of six. Both teams are tied in the standings at 11-22. The Washington Mystics and the Dallas Wings are not fully out of the picture either, just one and two games back of Chicago/Atlanta, respectively.
ESPN Analytics says the final playoff spot will come down to either the Dream (53.7%) or the Sky (36.5%), giving their Sept. 17 meeting in Atlanta greater significance (note the Sky currently own the edge in the season series 2-1). Can the now-healthy Dream, with Jordin Canada and Rhyne Howard back in the lineup, play to their potential consistently?
Meanwhile, it’s difficult to see Chicago reversing course without top scorer Chennedy Carter, who has missed five games since the Olympics because of illness. Even then, the Sky are just 1-3 when she has played. — Alexa Philippou
Who will be the final first-round host?
The top four seeds host the first round of the playoffs. The New York Liberty are guaranteed to be one of those teams; the Connecticut Sun and Minnesota are all but certain, too. All three have separated themselves as the top championship contenders.
The last host spot appears to be between the Las Vegas Aces (21-12), Seattle (20-13) — and possibly even Indiana (17-16).
The Aces have had more ups and downs than expected, but they still have the heavy MVP favorite, A’ja Wilson. She and Las Vegas’ other star players — Chelsea Gray, Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young — have gone a combined 16-3 in the playoffs while winning the championship the past two years. Hosting again as a higher seed would provide a boost for 2024.
That said, coach Becky Hammon said Tuesday she was less concerned about that than getting the Aces to where they are playing their best when it matters most: the postseason. Plum didn’t play in Tuesday’s 90-71 win against Chicago, due to an ankle issue, with Hammon saying it was more precautionary to rest her, similar to how she held Young out last Friday against Atlanta.
Seattle missed the playoffs last season, then added key free agent talent with Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins-Smith. The Storm’s defense overall has been good, but in four of their losses since the Olympic break, it has let them down. Still, at their best — like in Tuesday’s 71-64 win at Connecticut — they can compete for that final host spot. Should Las Vegas and Seattle finish the regular season with the same record, keep in mind the Aces lead their season series 2-1 and the teams meet once more, Sept. 17 in Seattle.
Indiana has the most ground to make up, while also needing the Aces and Storm to lose. One benefit for the Fever: Six of their final seven games are at home. — Michael Voepel
Is New York still the favorite to win the championship?
No. The first-place Liberty haven’t been the hottest team in the league in the second half, dropping two of their past four games (at home to the Sun and on the road to the last-place Los Angeles Sparks). They had four Olympians plus coach Sandy Brondello in Paris, so post-Olympic fatigue might be a factor.
But the Liberty were without Betnijah Laney-Hamilton in the Connecticut loss, whom they dominated in the season series 3-1. The loss to the Sparks was admittedly worse, but Jonquel Jones was absent there because of a non-COVID illness. Sabrina Ionescu, too, missed a pair of games with a neck issue that seemed to throw off her rhythm. All three are back now, giving the Liberty a more complete roster than they’ve had for much of the summer. The availability of Laney-Hamilton, who had a minor procedure on her knee in July, remains key to a championship run.
New York could still clean up on turnovers — it’s committing 16.1 per game since the break, second most in the league — but it has the best net rating in the second half (plus-13.2) behind its top-ranked defense. Another good sign: Breanna Stewart is coming off back-to-back 30-pieces and is shooting 44.1% from 3 since the Olympics.
A strong week against the Storm on Thursday and the Aces on Sunday would erase any doubts there’s a lull in New York. — Philippou
What is the Fever’s postseason ceiling?
A semifinal appearance is a possibility, because of how difficult the Fever’s offense can be to stop and how they’ve improved defensively.
The Fever have been waiting since 2016 to get back to the postseason. Once they’re past the initial excitement, though, they can focus on competing.
Indiana has defeated every team except Las Vegas at least once this season.
Kelsey Mitchell and Caitlin Clark have played as well offensively as any guard duo in the league since the Olympics. Lexie Hull has excelled both as a reserve and in the starting lineup the past three games. Speaking of the bench, having veteran post players, such as Damiris Dantas and Temi Fagbenle, contribute offensively and defensively makes the Fever a deeper team. And Indiana has become more confident in its ability to finish strong in close games.
If they don’t host in the first round, the Fever will need to win one game on the road in the best-of-three series to have a chance to play in front of their home crowd for a deciding Game 3. That could be quite a scene: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, which has been rocking most of this season even before the Fever got on their hot streak, finally getting another playoff game. — Voepel
Are the Aces still in the hunt for a three-peat?
The Aces were heavily favored to make the WNBA Finals in 2022 and last season. This year’s road currently projects to be more challenging, with potentially a tough first-round series and an even tougher semifinal series (probably against New York).
It’s a little difficult to pinpoint just why the Aces haven’t been as efficient as they were last year. Gray started the season late (June 19) because she was still rehabbing a foot injury suffered in last season’s WNBA Finals. She had her first double-double of the season (13 points, 10 assists) in Tuesday’s 90-71 victory against Chicago.
The core players (Wilson, Gray, Young and Plum) all played on the U.S. Olympic team and got less rest than those of other teams. Hammon has pointed to moments when the Aces make mental mistakes on defense we’re not used to seeing from them. Wilson is used to carrying a big workload, but at times she has virtually had to do it all.
Let’s also not forget, the Aces are still the defending champions. While teams have exposed some of their vulnerabilities this season, the Aces still have enormous individual talent and experience winning together.
And perhaps they can get behind the idea of being “underdogs” — as odd as that sounds — and make their playoff opponents feel the pressure. Bottom line: They’re still in the hunt. — Voepel
