The Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) visit the Atlanta Falcons (1-1) on “Sunday Night Football” to close out the day’s slate of games. Led by MVP favorite Patrick Mahomes (+275), the reigning two-time Super Bowl champion Chiefs will hit the road for the first time this season.
Atlanta, meanwhile, comes in fresh off a road upset of the Philadelphia Eagles. After a rough Falcons debut, Kirk Cousins had a much better performance in Week 2, completing 20 of 29 passes for 241 yards and two touchdowns.
The Chiefs, to no one’s surprise, are favored but are just 6-13 against the spread in their past 19 prime-time games.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
Game lines
Spread: Chiefs -3
Money line: Chiefs (-170), Falcons (+145)
Over/Under: 46.5
First-half spread: Chiefs -2.5 (-105), Falcons +2.5 (-1) 15
Chiefs total points: 24.5 (Over -105/under -125)
Falcons total points: 21.5 (Over -105/under -125)
The props
Passing
Patrick Mahomes total passing yards: 274.5 (Over +105/under -135)
Mahomes total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over -165/under +130)
Kirk Cousins total passing yards: 224.5 (Over -145/under +115)
Cousins total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +105/under -135)
Rushing
Bijan Robinson total rushing yards: 79.5 (Over +110/under -140)
Carson Steele total rushing yards: 44.5 (Over -120/under -110)
Receiving
Rashee Rice total receiving yards: 79.5 (Over -100/under -130)
Travis Kelce total receiving yards: 49.5 (Over -110/under -120)
Drake London total receiving yards: 59.5 (Over -130/under -100)
Kyle Pitts total receiving yards: 39.5 (Over -120/under -110)
Xavier Worthy total receiving yards: 39.5 (Over -110/under -120)
Darnell Mooney total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over -125/under -105)
Ray-Ray McCloud III total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over +100/under -130)
Bijan Robinson total receiving yards: 29.5 (Over -115/under -115)
Tyler Fulghum’s picks
Kyle Pitts 50+ receiving yards (+145). It has been a slow start for Pitts again. This is the matchup, though, that gives him his best chance of breaking out. The Chiefs have allowed opposing tight ends to catch 25 passes for 275 yards through the first two weeks of the season. Kirk Cousins looked better against the Eagles, leading Atlanta down the field for the winning drive with under two minutes to go. Atlanta should target Pitts often in this game, given what Baltimore and Cincinnati tight ends have done to this defense thus far.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 0.5 INT. Mahomes has already thrown three interceptions in the first two weeks of the season. Now with running back Isiah Pacheco on IR, Andy Reid should be even further incentivized to drop back Mahomes as often as possible. Due to that expected increase in passing volume, we also get more opportunities for a mistake. The Falcons have very good playmakers in the secondary in A.J. Terrell and Jessie Bates III.
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Research
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The Falcons are 3-9 ATS in their past 12 games as an underdog entering SNF.
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Kirk Cousins is 5-1 ATS in his past six prime-time games entering SNF.
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Patrick Mahomes has three interceptions, which would be the most through two games by a quarterback to win MVP since 2002 (Rich Gannon). Mahomes is -140 to throw an INT in Week 3.
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Rashee Rice has gone over his receiving yards prop in 7 straight games going back to last season, the longest active streak among wide receivers.
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Bijan Robinson put up over 100-plus scrimmage yards in both games this season; his Week 3 prop is 106.5 and he’s -185 to reach the century mark again.
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The Chiefs are 6-13 ATS in their past 19 prime-time games. The Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their past 10 prime-time games.
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Prime-time unders are 161-111-4 since 2019 (.592). “Sunday Night Football” unders are 57-31-2 in that span (.648).
