Allan Lichtman, a historian and professor at American University often called the Nostradamus of presidential elections, has two notes for you: there is no such thing as an October surprise and Kamala Harris is still set to win.
Appearing on CNN, Lichtman said: “Nothing has changed. The biggest myth in American politics is the so-called October surprise. I’ve always issued my predictions before then, and never change them.
He continued: “In 2016 for example, we had the biggest October surprise, Donald Trump on tape bragging about sexually assaulting women, and a lot of women coming out and saying: ‘yeah, he did that to me.’ Even Republicans were saying he was finished. I did not change my prediction of a Trump win.”
Lichtman was referring to an Access Hollywood tape leaked in early October less than a month away from election day, back in 2016 when he was running against Hillary Clinton. Trump was heard bragging in vulgar terms about women. And look how that turned out. Lichtman has an almost perfect track record of calling presidential elections over the past four decades. This election year, he’s predicting a Harris win, and he isn’t changing course, despite feeling more anxious about it than ever before.
“I have never experienced the kind of hate I’ve had heaped on me this time, which has made me very nervous. I’ve had hate that’s scurrilous, vulgar, threatening, violent…We’ve had to notify the police we’ve had to fortify our home. It’s been terribly upsetting.”
He continued: “The other thing is, I believe democracy is on the line in this election. If I’m wrong, so be it. You know, I think being wrong once is not going to discredit my system, but I think if I’m wrong, then our democracy is in very serious peril. Democracy is precious, but it can be destroyed and it’s almost always destroyed from within. And unfortunately, the trend of this century has been the decline of democracy, all over the world. And I’m worried about our country.”
In national polls, Harris has the tiniest bit of lead on Trump, but it really is neck-and-neck. Either way, even if it is a myth, what was this year’s so-called October surprise for the Trump campaign? Maybe the rally at Madison Square Garden? A lot of headlines came out of that one, but comedian Tony Hinchcliffe’s comments about Puerto Rico may take the cake.
Democrats of course ran with it. On the other hand, Trump claimed he had “done more for Puerto Rico than any president by far, nobody close,” later adding: “I will deliver the best future for Puerto Ricans and for Hispanic Americans. Kamala will deliver you poverty and crime.” Fortune’s Shawn Tully reported that Trump blew a huge lead and that rally started the drop.
For the Harris campaign, her billionaire surrogate Mark Cuban may have delivered a sort of October surprise, the last day of the month, too. On The View, when asked what he thinks about Trump seemingly not calling on former presidential candidate Nikki Haley for help, he said: “Donald Trump, you never see him around strong, intelligent women. Ever. It’s just that simple. They’re intimidating to him. He doesn’t like to be challenged by them.”
It seemed that he was speaking about the people Trump chooses to have around him on the campaign trail, but Cuban got a lot of heat for what he said. He later apologized for and clarified his comments to suggest he knows many strong, intelligent women who are voting for Trump, who support Trump, and who have worked with Trump.
Election day is tomorrow. We’ll see if Lichtman called it right—again.
Join business‘s brightest minds and boldest leaders at the Fortune Global Forum, convening November 11 and 12 in New York City. Thought-provoking sessions and off-the-record discussions feature Fortune 500 CEOs, former Cabinet members and global Ambassadors, and 7x world champion Tom Brady–among many others.
See the full agenda here, or request your invitation.
