Fantasy football is a passion for many. Sometimes that passion pushes fantasy managers to make emotional decisions even when the data suggest otherwise. Each week during the 2024 NFL season, Liz Loza will attempt to strike a balance between what the data states and what the heart wants. This is called Facts vs. Feelings.
“Life is not linear.”
It was a phrase emphatically (if not frustratingly) volleyed at me by a dear friend last spring. We had scheduled a post-NFL draft catch-up, exhaling the frenzy of April and inhaling the relative quiet of May. As often happens with former colleagues turned close pals, the convo moved from professional check-in to unadulterated kiki in a matter of minutes.
See, “Rob” (as he’ll be referred to here) does not waste time. He will swiftly identify your “ish” and — with indefatigable precision — call you on it. Rob is my just “say the thing” friend. And once it’s been said, that news can no longer be faked because he will level you with truth bombs until all of the delulu has left the building (and your body). Everyone needs a Rob. (But maybe not every day.)
On this particular occasion, I was venting about one of my more complicated personal entanglements. I was explaining the delicate facts of the relationship while expressing my layered feelings surrounding this person’s recent actions, decrying that if A and B were accurate then C should be a foregone conclusion. Rob did not accept the Liz logic.
Instead of spotlighting absolutes, he pointed out all of the unknowns, suggesting that my singular focus had blurred my overall vision. He wasn’t wrong, but it was a tilting POV shift. After reluctant examination, it turned out the situation held many more question marks than exclamation points. When I lamented this discovery, feeling panicked by all of the unknowns, Rob (with trademark Gen-X-like edge) asked, “Isn’t that actually a relief?” The SOB was right.
Dominoes don’t always fall in a straight line. Neither does life. There exist a countless number of speed bumps, curveballs and detours, all of which bring forth an array of alternate pathways and new trails to blaze. Yes, it’s exhausting, but it’s also exhilarating. Give me possibility over predictability … even in fantasy football.
Were most fans of the virtual game fist pumping with glee when they snagged the first pick in their drafts? Probably. Were they then cursing the fantasy gods when Christian McCaffrey was ruled out shortly before kickoff on Monday night? Absolutely. Did a few lucky CMC investors end up with a dub thanks to Jake Moody’s leg? Maybe (actually, I do know of one, because he DM’d while still in shock). That’s the deal, baby! Sometimes you’re up and sometimes you’re down, but you’re never not moving.
The occurrences of Week 1 might be an anomaly or they could hint at an emerging pattern. It’s our job to identify points of emphasis without letting them overshadow the entire picture. This is a process that will never be permanent. We will misjudge, and when we do it is important to stay open and redirect. Enjoy the ups. Bemoan the downs. And remember that where your team is today won’t be where it’s at tomorrow … for better or for worse.
To trust or not to trust in Week 2
Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears: Maybe Williams isn’t ready for that gold jacket just yet … because HE SHOULDN’T BE. My lack of overt enthusiasm for Williams in redraft leagues rubbed plenty of Chicago fans the wrong way throughout the summer, but his Week 1 results are exactly why I remained tepid. There’s no doubting the 22-year-old’s talent — especially as an improvisational artist — but the building of a solid pro foundation takes time. Here’s a friendly (and annoying) reminder that Patrick Mahomes sat for the entirety (save Week 17) of his first season.
Williams floundered for much of the opener, struggling to keep up with the clip of the professional game. He was inaccurate often and danced behind the pocket way too much. Rather than allow himself to be consumed by the enormity of the moment (or the ferocity of the Tennessee Titans front), however, Williams began to discover a cadence. In fact, 64% of the team’s yards came in the fourth quarter. Additionally, Williams led three drives in the game’s final 25 minutes — all of which ended in Tennessee territory — with two of those advances resulting in field goals (after managing a single field goal through the first three quarters).
Progress doesn’t immediately translate into big-time production. Still, Williams demonstrated glimmers of future fantasy stardom. His five carries for 15 yards reminded managers of his willingness to run. And while efficiency was lacking, the fact 23 of his 29 passes were fielded by DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze points to a sturdy framework. With Odunze potentially limited (knee) this week, expect Cole Kmet to become more involved and emerge as a safety value for the young QB.
The lights will be bright on Sunday night in Houston, and Williams is likely to make mistakes while attempting to keep pace with C.J. Stroud & Co. Outside of superflex leagues, there’s no reason to start him right now, but don’t give up on his potential yet. Instead, let him grow on the field while maturing in value on your bench.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: Yes, the fumble … but also everything else. Etienne’s calling card upon entering the league was his explosiveness, however that burst was sorely lacking in Week 1. Instead, it was Tank Bigsby who ran with urgency, averaging more yards before (2.58) and after (3.5) first contact. This could, maybe, be taken with a grain of salt if Bigsby’s workload was significantly smaller. Yet, both backs recorded 12 carries, with Bigsby proving to be the more efficient rusher, managing 6.1 yards per carry to Etienne’s 3.7.
Etienne was more involved in the passing game, converting two of three looks for 15 yards, but Bigsby wasn’t wholly absent. The second-year back ran four routes (Etienne logged 12), which suggests the 23-year-old may be a larger part of Jacksonville’s offensive plans than originally anticipated. Perhaps this shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise, given Doug Pederson’s comments about wanting to reduce Etienne’s workload in an effort to maintain his lead back’s health. While Etienne recorded a healthy 69% snap share (RB14) in Week 1, that number is down considerably from the 75% (RB6) he registered in 2023.
Still, the former Clemson rusher figures to remain the favorite in the red area. He was granted all seven red zone snaps and did punch in a 1-yard score (though that happened well before the aforementioned fumble). These high-value touches figure to keep Etienne solidly in the RB2 mix, particularly versus a Browns defense that could be gassed while trying to atone for the sins of its offense. Bigsby, on the other hand, should be stashed but not thrown into lineups just yet.
Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns: Cleveland’s offense may have been inept in Week 1, but it wasn’t Ford’s fault. With Nick Chubb on IR and the backfield to himself, Ford fought against a disastrous game script by staying active in the passing game. In fact, a third of his total touches came via the air, as the 24-year-old ranked third in team targets (seven) behind Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy. While his yardage was not exactly prolific (69 scrimmage yards), his six catches and rushing score netted him nearly 19 fantasy points (RB11).
Cleveland’s offense may not hum, but Ford’s motor figures to be showcased. Not only did his 74% snap share rank ninth among RBs (not far behind the likes of early-round draft picks Jonathan Taylor, Kyren Williams, Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, Saquon Barkley and Isiah Pacheco), he also ran a route on 66% of the team’s dropbacks. That level of volume offsets even profound inefficiencies. With the Browns likely chasing points versus the Jaguars (they are 3-point underdogs), expect more dump-offs (and points per reception) for the team’s (temporary) lead back. Ford projects as a top-24 fantasy back heading into Week 2.
Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas Raiders: I might not have had Alexander Mattison posting more fantasy points than White on my Week 1 bingo card … but I also did not have White on any of my bingo cards. Rushing volume doesn’t much matter when the squad is constantly playing catch-up. The Raiders’ offense appears to be the opposite of potent. Case in point: Vegas managed a single red zone snap on Sunday! That does not bode well for a back with limited pass-catching prowess.
White’s carries (13) nearly tripled Mattison’s (five), but the former Viking outproduced the incumbent RB by 16 total yards and a score. Additionally, White’s snap share (39%, RB42) paled in comparison with Mattison’s hearty 59% (RB21). Game script, of course, affected the usage of both backs, but it’s worth noting Mattison was deployed on 59% of the team’s snaps in the first half, when the Raiders were ahead by a point.
Mattison played on 13 of 14 third-down snaps, so he is being trusted to propel the offense forward. That doesn’t figure to change when Raider Nation travels cross-country to take on a rested Ravens defense that allowed the sixth-fewest yards per game in 2023. White is shaping up to be a TD-dependent flex play. Mattison, on the other hand, offers fringe RB3 appeal to managers in deep leagues, but is best avoided for the time being.
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Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans: Stefon Diggs ended up with two TDs and roughly five more fantasy points, but Collins cemented himself as Houston’s alpha with his Week 1 play. Leading the Texans’ receivers in snaps (80%), Collins converted six of eight looks for a cool 117 yards (WR6). The 6-foot-4, 214-pound wideout showed off his impossibly fast wheels, reaching a top speed of nearly 22 mph (WR1) while hauling in a bomb from Stroud for a 57-yard gain in the second quarter.
Collins can excel on any down and from any distance. That’s not necessarily true for the rest of the team’s WR corps. It’s only one game’s worth of data, but the chasm between Collins’ and Diggs’ receiving stats is jaw-dropping. For example, Collins managed an aDOT of over 16 yards while Diggs posted a paltry 1.3. Similarly, Collins registered 129 air yards (WR6) while Diggs’ topped out at eight. That doesn’t mean that the Buffalo transplant won’t continue to find glory in the red area, but Collins figures to deliver meaningful stat lines on a regular basis.
As the team’s No. 1, he’s also first in line to draw top coverage from the Bears on Sunday night. That means a lot of Jaylon Johnson (who was “picked on” just twice in Week 1). The battle should be fierce. Collins, however, deserves managers’ trust, placing him on the WR1/WR2 bubble for fantasy purposes.
DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles: Smith cleared 1,000 receiving yards and recorded exactly seven spikes in back-to-back seasons. He closed out last season as fantasy’s WR19, averaging better than 14 fantasy points per game. Yet, he slipped to the sixth round of most drafts, falling outside of the first 50 players selected. That’s looking to be a solid value, as Philly’s No. 2 WR quietly led the team in catches and eclipsed 15 PPR fantasy points in Brazil on Friday.
The Eagles’ offense has proven potent enough to support two top-20 fantasy producers, as evidenced by A.J. Brown’s 34% target share (WR5) and Smith’s 28% (WR18) versus Green Bay. Smith actually outsnapped Brown, as one of just six skill players to manage a 100% snap rate in Week 1. Interestingly, 55% of those snaps occurred in the slot (new addition Jahan Dotson lined up outside 83% of the time). That should allow Smith to avoid a majority of the league’s top corners and continue to rack up grabs. With A.J. Terrell likely to focus on Brown, Smith’s Week 2 stat line should resemble the one he posted in the opener.
Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints: The Saints looked like world-beaters on Sunday. They were also playing the Panthers. Given the matchup, it’s difficult to determine how grand an effect Klint Kubiak has had on the team’s offense. None of that, however, takes away from the glory that was Johnson’s toe-dragging score at the bottom of the second quarter.
Both Johnson and fellow tight end Foster Moreau found the end zone (along with three additional teammates) in Week 1. Moreau outsnapped Johnson by a healthy margin, but the Oregon standout ran a higher number of routes (12 routes on 23 snaps, as opposed to 10 on 52 for Moreau), suggesting that he’s the preferred pass-catching option. Moreau also left the contest with a head injury and is questionable heading into Week 2. If Moreau sits, Johnson would likely command a larger target share.
That could bode well Sunday in Dallas. The Cowboys were spectacular in Cleveland, sacking Deshaun Watson six times while allowing just seven yards per reception (fourth fewest). However, the defense struggled to contain David Njoku, who converted four of five looks for a team-leading 44 receiving yards before leaving in the third quarter with an ankle injury. Johnson — who managed four scores (TE12) in 2023 — could similarly exploit the matchup. With Njoku banged up and Jake Ferguson (knee) questionable, Johnson deserves streaming consideration in fantasy.
