Jamie Dimon has long cited geopolitical tensions as the biggest threat facing the economy. Not only does he still believe that’s the case, but he also says the situation is only becoming direr.
JPMorgan released its third quarter results today, and its CEO provided an accompanying snapshot of his outlook on the market.
In the note, Dimon counted human suffering among the costs of conflicts in the likes of Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as short-term economic upset.
The Wall Street veteran wrote: “We have been closely monitoring the geopolitical situation for some time, and recent events show that conditions are treacherous and getting worse.
“There is significant human suffering, and the outcome of these situations could have far-reaching effects on both short-term economic outcomes and more importantly on the course of history.”
The billionaire banker has highlighted the devastating human costs of these conflicts previously: at the 2024 Financial Markets Quality (FMQ) Conference last month, Dimon noted the number of deaths and child displacements as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Since Russia’s invasion of the European nation of Ukraine in February 2022, one million people are estimated to have died or been injured.
Ukrainian authorities also believe more than 19,000 children have been deported or forcibly displaced into Russian territory, with less than 400 returned to their families. Russian authorities have reportedly insisted the children are being sent to their nation to keep them safe.
Such figures have led Dimon to label Russia—along with Iran and North Korea—an “evil axis” of nations that are “working every day [on] how to make it worse for the Western world and for America.”
Mixed economic outlook
The going is steady at America’s biggest bank.
JP Morgan this week reported revenue of $42.7 billion for the third quarter of 2024, up 7% from the same quarter last year.
The results were hamstrung by a 31% decline—worth $4 billion—in net income in the consumer and community banking sector, which JP said was driven in part by lower deposit balances and net interest income.
The mixed bag means Dimon—who was paid $36 million for his work in 2023—is keeping a keen eye on upcoming economic issues.
“While inflation is slowing and the U.S. economy remains resilient, several critical issues remain, including large fiscal deficits, infrastructure needs, restructuring of trade and remilitarization of the world,” Dimon wrote in the results announcement.
Uncle Sam’s economic resiliency and its ability to defend Western leadership go hand in hand, the 68-year-old has warned previously.
The Harvard Business School alumni is one of many who are warning that America’s $35.7 trillion national debt burden will result in a crisis.
For Dimon, waiting until problems like fiscal debt become unavoidable puts the nation’s security at risk.
At FMQ in Washington, he said: “People say when countries get in more and more indebted, that’s when they lose their real economic power around the world.
“Our economic power is the foundation of our moral and military power. And we always have to keep that in mind so I would like to deal with it sooner rather than later.”
Preparing for the worst
Dimon finished: “While we hope for the best, these events and the prevailing uncertainty demonstrate why we must be prepared for any environment.”
JPMorgan’s preparation for any range of geopolitical and economic outcomes won’t surprise those who have studied Dimon’s leadership principles.
In his 2023 letter to shareholders, Dimon began a section on management lessons by outlining the benefits of the “OODA loop.”
He explained: “The military, which often operates in extreme intensity of life and death and in the fog and uncertainty of war, uses the term ‘OODA loop’ (observe, orient, decide, act—repeat), a strategic process of constant review, analysis, decision making, and action.
“One cannot overemphasize the importance of observation and a full assessment—the failure to do so leads to some of the greatest mistakes, not only in war but also in business and government.”
