Mortgage interest rates managed to string together two consecutive weeks of decreases for the first time since September. The week ending Dec. 5, the average rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 21 basis points to 6.59%, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. A basis point is one-one hundredth of a percentage point.
The timing is not great. With the holiday season kicking into full gear and winter weather causing chaos in some parts of the country, many potential home buyers have likely put house hunting on hold. For the intrepid few that plow ahead with their home searches, slightly lower interest rates and less competition could help.
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Lower rates ahead?
Markets are anticipating another cut to a key short-term interest rate when the Federal Reserve meets later this month. But lately mortgage rates have had a habit of adjusting ahead of the Fed. They slid for months ahead of the central bankers’ first cut in September, and have mostly trended upward since then despite a second cut in November. The lows we’re seeing now could be as low as we’re going to get.
Speaking at a New York Times-sponsored event this week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted that “growth is definitely stronger than we thought, and inflation is coming a little higher” than Fed officials had predicted. Depending on how that data trends, future Fed rate cuts could be smaller or more spread out than currently anticipated. December’s Fed meeting will bring a fresh Summary of Economic Projections — basically a tabulation of Fed governors’ predictions for key aspects of the economy — and possibly a clearer picture of where interest rates are headed.
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Fewer homes, high prices
Even if rates continue to fall, it’s still far from a buyer’s market out there. The NerdWallet First-Time Home Buyer Affordability Report for the third quarter of 2024 — that’s July, August and September — found that while conditions are getting better, they’re mostly going from worse to bad.
Inventory is rising, with active listings up 35% compared with the third quarter of 2023. It’s a great year-over-year boost, but if you zoom out it’s considerably less impressive. This year’s higher number is still 26% below the third quarter of 2019, when inventory was at much more comfortable pre-pandemic levels.
Home prices tell a similar story. The typical listing price actually fell 2% last quarter compared to the second quarter of 2024 (May, June and July). But prices remain high in many parts of the country. In Kansas City, which saw the largest quarter-over-quarter drop at 9%, the average listing price was nearly $400,000. San Diego had a 6% drop in prices, but the average listing there is still over $1,000,000.
For those who can afford to buy, house shopping while others are holiday shopping could be a smart move. But if you’d rather bide your time — and perhaps build your down payment fund — there’s no reason to rush.
